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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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